Nick Bostrom
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Nick Bostrom ( ; sv, Niklas Boström ; born 10 March 1973) is a Swedish-born
philosopher A philosopher is a person who practices or investigates philosophy. The term ''philosopher'' comes from the grc, φιλόσοφος, , translit=philosophos, meaning 'lover of wisdom'. The coining of the term has been attributed to the Greek th ...
at the
University of Oxford , mottoeng = The Lord is my light , established = , endowment = £6.1 billion (including colleges) (2019) , budget = £2.145 billion (2019–20) , chancellor ...
known for his work on
existential risk A global catastrophic risk or a doomsday scenario is a hypothetical future event that could damage human well-being on a global scale, even endangering or destroying modern civilization. An event that could cause human extinction or permanen ...
, the
anthropic principle The anthropic principle, also known as the "observation selection effect", is the hypothesis, first proposed in 1957 by Robert Dicke, that there is a restrictive lower bound on how statistically probable our observations of the universe are, beca ...
,
human enhancement Human enhancement (HE) can be described as the natural, artificial, or technological alteration of the human body in order to enhance physical or mental capabilities. Technologies Existing technologies Three forms of human enhancement curre ...
ethics,
superintelligence A superintelligence is a hypothetical agent that possesses intelligence far surpassing that of the brightest and most gifted human minds. "Superintelligence" may also refer to a property of problem-solving systems (e.g., superintelligent languag ...
risks, and the
reversal test The reversal test is a heuristic designed to spot and eliminate status quo bias, an emotional bias irrationally favouring the current state of affairs. The test is applicable to the evaluation of any decision involving a potential deviation from th ...
. In 2011, he founded the Oxford Martin Program on the Impacts of Future Technology, and is the founding director of the
Future of Humanity Institute The Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) is an interdisciplinary research centre at the University of Oxford investigating big-picture questions about humanity and its prospects. It was founded in 2005 as part of the Faculty of Philosophy and t ...
at Oxford University. In 2009 and 2015, he was included in ''
Foreign Policy A State (polity), state's foreign policy or external policy (as opposed to internal or domestic policy) is its objectives and activities in relation to its interactions with other states, unions, and other political entities, whether bilaterall ...
''s Top 100 Global Thinkers list. Bostrom is the author of over 200 publications, and has written two books and co-edited two others. The two books he has authored are '' Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy'' (2002) and '' Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies'' (2014). ''Superintelligence'' was a ''
New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid d ...
'' bestseller, was recommended by
Elon Musk Elon Reeve Musk ( ; born June 28, 1971) is a business magnate and investor. He is the founder, CEO and chief engineer of SpaceX; angel investor, CEO and product architect of Tesla, Inc.; owner and CEO of Twitter, Inc.; founder of The Bori ...
and
Bill Gates William Henry Gates III (born October 28, 1955) is an American business magnate and philanthropist. He is a co-founder of Microsoft, along with his late childhood friend Paul Allen. During his career at Microsoft, Gates held the positions ...
among others, and helped to popularize the term "
superintelligence A superintelligence is a hypothetical agent that possesses intelligence far surpassing that of the brightest and most gifted human minds. "Superintelligence" may also refer to a property of problem-solving systems (e.g., superintelligent languag ...
". Bostrom believes that superintelligence, which he defines as "any intellect that greatly exceeds the cognitive performance of humans in virtually all domains of interest," is a potential outcome of advances in
artificial intelligence Artificial intelligence (AI) is intelligence—perceiving, synthesizing, and inferring information—demonstrated by machines, as opposed to intelligence displayed by animals and humans. Example tasks in which this is done include speech re ...
. He views the rise of superintelligence as potentially highly dangerous to humans, but nonetheless rejects the idea that humans are powerless to stop its negative effects. In 2017, he co-signed a list of 23 principles that all A.I. development should follow.


Biography

Born as Niklas Boström in 1973 in
Helsingborg Helsingborg (, , , ) is a city and the seat of Helsingborg Municipality, Scania (Skåne), Sweden. It is the second-largest city in Scania (after Malmö) and ninth-largest in Sweden, with a population of 113,816 (2020). Helsingborg is the cent ...
, Sweden, he disliked school at a young age, and ended up spending his last year of high school learning from home. He sought to educate himself in a wide variety of disciplines, including anthropology, art, literature, and science. He once did some turns on London's stand-up comedy circuit. He received a
B.A. Bachelor of arts (BA or AB; from the Latin ', ', or ') is a bachelor's degree awarded for an undergraduate program in the arts, or, in some cases, other disciplines. A Bachelor of Arts degree course is generally completed in three or four yea ...
degree in philosophy, mathematics, mathematical logic, and artificial intelligence from the
University of Gothenburg The University of Gothenburg ( sv, Göteborgs universitet) is a university in Sweden's second largest city, Gothenburg. Founded in 1891, the university is the third-oldest of the current Swedish universities and with 37,000 students and 6000 st ...
in 1994. He then earned an
M.A. A Master of Arts ( la, Magister Artium or ''Artium Magister''; abbreviated MA, M.A., AM, or A.M.) is the holder of a master's degree awarded by universities in many countries. The degree is usually contrasted with that of Master of Science. Tho ...
degree in philosophy and physics from
Stockholm University Stockholm University ( sv, Stockholms universitet) is a public research university in Stockholm, Sweden, founded as a college in 1878, with university status since 1960. With over 33,000 students at four different faculties: law, humanities, so ...
and an MSc degree in
computational neuroscience Computational neuroscience (also known as theoretical neuroscience or mathematical neuroscience) is a branch of neuroscience which employs mathematical models, computer simulations, theoretical analysis and abstractions of the brain to u ...
from
King's College London King's College London (informally King's or KCL) is a public research university located in London, England. King's was established by royal charter in 1829 under the patronage of King George IV and the Duke of Wellington. In 1836, King's ...
in 1996. During his time at Stockholm University, he researched the relationship between language and reality by studying the analytic philosopher
W. V. Quine Willard Van Orman Quine (; known to his friends as "Van"; June 25, 1908 – December 25, 2000) was an American philosopher and logician in the analytic tradition, recognized as "one of the most influential philosophers of the twentieth century". ...
. In 2000, he was awarded a PhD degree in philosophy from the
London School of Economics , mottoeng = To understand the causes of things , established = , type = Public research university , endowment = £240.8 million (2021) , budget = £391.1 millio ...
. His thesis was titled ''Observational selection effects and probability''. He held a teaching position at
Yale University Yale University is a private research university in New Haven, Connecticut. Established in 1701 as the Collegiate School, it is the third-oldest institution of higher education in the United States and among the most prestigious in the wo ...
(2000–2002), and was a
British Academy The British Academy is the United Kingdom's national academy for the humanities and the social sciences. It was established in 1902 and received its royal charter in the same year. It is now a fellowship of more than 1,000 leading scholars span ...
Postdoctoral Fellow at the
University of Oxford , mottoeng = The Lord is my light , established = , endowment = £6.1 billion (including colleges) (2019) , budget = £2.145 billion (2019–20) , chancellor ...
(2002–2005).


Views


Existential risk

Aspects of Bostrom's research concern the future of humanity and long-term outcomes. He discusses
existential risk A global catastrophic risk or a doomsday scenario is a hypothetical future event that could damage human well-being on a global scale, even endangering or destroying modern civilization. An event that could cause human extinction or permanen ...
, which he defines as one in which an "adverse outcome would either annihilate Earth-originating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtail its potential." In the 2008 volume ''
Global Catastrophic Risks A global catastrophic risk or a doomsday scenario is a hypothetical future event that could damage human well-being on a global scale, even endangering or destroying modern civilization. An event that could cause human extinction or permanen ...
'', editors Bostrom and Milan M. Ćirković characterize the relation between existential risk and the broader class of
global catastrophic risks A global catastrophic risk or a doomsday scenario is a hypothetical future event that could damage human well-being on a global scale, even endangering or destroying modern civilization. An event that could cause human extinction or permanen ...
, and link existential risk to observer selection effects and the
Fermi paradox The Fermi paradox is the discrepancy between the lack of conclusive evidence of advanced extraterrestrial life and the apparently high a priori likelihood of its existence, and by extension of obtaining such evidence. As a 2015 article put it, ...
. In 2005, Bostrom founded the
Future of Humanity Institute The Future of Humanity Institute (FHI) is an interdisciplinary research centre at the University of Oxford investigating big-picture questions about humanity and its prospects. It was founded in 2005 as part of the Faculty of Philosophy and t ...
, which researches the far future of human civilization. He is also an adviser to the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk.


Superintelligence


Human vulnerability in relation to advances in A.I.

In his 2014 book '' Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies'', Bostrom reasoned that the creation of a superintelligence represents a possible means to the extinction of mankind. Bostrom argues that a computer with near human-level general intellectual ability could initiate an
intelligence explosion The technological singularity—or simply the singularity—is a hypothetical future point in time at which technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in unforeseeable changes to human civilization. According to the ...
on a digital time-scale with the resultant rapid creation of something so powerful that it might deliberately or accidentally destroy humanity. Bostrom contends the power of a superintelligence would be so great that a task given to it by humans might be taken to open-ended extremes, for example a goal of calculating pi might collaterally cause nanotechnology manufactured facilities to sprout over the entire Earth's surface and cover it within days. He believes an existential risk to humanity from superintelligence would be immediate once brought into being, thus creating an exceedingly difficult problem of finding out how to control such an entity before it actually exists. Bostrom points to the lack of agreement among most philosophers that A.I. will be human-friendly, and says that the common assumption is that high intelligence would have a "nerdy" unaggressive personality. However, he notes that both
John von Neumann John von Neumann (; hu, Neumann János Lajos, ; December 28, 1903 â€“ February 8, 1957) was a Hungarian-American mathematician, physicist, computer scientist, engineer and polymath. He was regarded as having perhaps the widest cove ...
and
Bertrand Russell Bertrand Arthur William Russell, 3rd Earl Russell, (18 May 1872 – 2 February 1970) was a British mathematician, philosopher, logician, and public intellectual. He had a considerable influence on mathematics, logic, set theory, linguistics, ...
advocated a nuclear strike, or the threat of one, to prevent the Soviets acquiring the atomic bomb. Given that there are few precedents to guide an understanding what, pure, non-anthropocentric rationality, would dictate for a potential
singleton Singleton may refer to: Sciences, technology Mathematics * Singleton (mathematics), a set with exactly one element * Singleton field, used in conformal field theory Computing * Singleton pattern, a design pattern that allows only one instance ...
A.I. being held in quarantine, the relatively unlimited means of superintelligence might make for its analysis moving along different lines to the evolved "diminishing returns" assessments that in humans confer a basic aversion to risk.
Group selection Group selection is a proposed mechanism of evolution in which natural selection acts at the level of the group, instead of at the level of the individual or gene. Early authors such as V. C. Wynne-Edwards and Konrad Lorenz argued that the behav ...
in predators working by means of cannibalism shows the counter-intuitive nature of non-anthropocentric "evolutionary search" reasoning, and thus humans are ill-equipped to perceive what an artificial intelligence's intentions might be. Accordingly, it cannot be discounted that any superintelligence would inevitably pursue an 'all or nothing' offensive action strategy in order to achieve hegemony and assure its survival. Bostrom notes that even current programs have, "like
MacGyver Angus "Mac" MacGyver is the title character and the protagonist in the TV series ''MacGyver''. He is played by Richard Dean Anderson in the 1985 original series. Lucas Till portrays a younger version of MacGyver in the 2016 reboot. In both p ...
", hit on apparently unworkable but functioning hardware solutions, making robust isolation of superintelligence problematic.


Illustrative scenario for takeover


= The scenario

= A machine with general intelligence far below human level, but superior mathematical abilities is created. Keeping the A.I. in isolation from the outside world, especially the internet, humans preprogram the A.I. so it always works from basic principles that will keep it under human control. Other safety measures include the A.I. being "boxed", (run in a virtual reality simulation), and being used only as an 'oracle' to answer carefully defined questions in a limited reply (to prevent it manipulating humans). A cascade of recursive self-improvement solutions feeds an
intelligence explosion The technological singularity—or simply the singularity—is a hypothetical future point in time at which technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in unforeseeable changes to human civilization. According to the ...
in which the A.I. attains superintelligence in some domains. The superintelligent power of the A.I. goes beyond human knowledge to discover flaws in the science that underlies its friendly-to-humanity programming, which ceases to work as intended. Purposeful agent-like behavior emerges along with a capacity for self-interested strategic deception. The A.I. manipulates humans into implementing modifications to itself that are ostensibly for augmenting its feigned, modest capabilities, but will actually function to free the superintelligence from its "boxed" isolation (the 'treacherous turn"). Employing online humans as paid dupes, and clandestinely hacking computer systems including automated laboratory facilities, the superintelligence mobilizes resources to further a takeover plan. Bostrom emphasizes that planning by a superintelligence will not be so stupid that humans could detect actual weaknesses in it. Although he canvasses disruption of international economic, political and military stability, including hacked nuclear missile launches, Bostrom thinks the most effective and likely means for the superintelligence to use would be a
coup de main A ''coup de main'' (; plural: ''coups de main'', French for blow with the hand) is a swift attack that relies on speed and surprise to accomplish its objectives in a single blow. Definition The United States Department of Defense defines it as ...
with weapons several generations more advanced than current state-of-the-art. He suggests nano-factories covertly distributed at undetectable concentrations in every square metre of the globe to produce a world-wide flood of human-killing devices on command.''Observer'' , Tim Adams, Sunday 12 June 201
Artificial intelligence: ‘We’re like children playing with a bomb’
/ref> Once a superintelligence has achieved world domination (a '
singleton Singleton may refer to: Sciences, technology Mathematics * Singleton (mathematics), a set with exactly one element * Singleton field, used in conformal field theory Computing * Singleton pattern, a design pattern that allows only one instance ...
'), humanity would be relevant only as resources for the achievement of the A.I.'s objectives ("Human brains, if they contain information relevant to the AI’s goals, could be disassembled and scanned, and the extracted data transferred to some more efficient and secure storage format").


= Countering the scenario

= To counter or mitigate an A.I. achieving unified technological global supremacy, Bostrom cites revisiting the Baruch Plan in support of a treaty-based solution and advocates strategies like monitoring and greater international collaboration between A.I. teams in order to improve safety and reduce the risks from the A.I. arms race. He recommends various control methods, including limiting the specifications of A.I.s to e.g.,
oracular An oracle is a person or agency considered to provide wise and insightful counsel or prophetic predictions, most notably including precognition of the future, inspired by deities. As such, it is a form of divination. Description The word ''or ...
or tool-like (
expert system In artificial intelligence, an expert system is a computer system emulating the decision-making ability of a human expert. Expert systems are designed to solve complex problems by reasoning through bodies of knowledge, represented mainly as if†...
) functions and loading the A.I. with values, for instance by associative value accretion or
value Value or values may refer to: Ethics and social * Value (ethics) wherein said concept may be construed as treating actions themselves as abstract objects, associating value to them ** Values (Western philosophy) expands the notion of value beyo ...
learning, e.g., by using the
Hail Mary The Hail Mary ( la, Ave Maria) is a traditional Christian prayer addressing Mary, the mother of Jesus. The prayer is based on two biblical passages featured in the Gospel of Luke: the Angel Gabriel's visit to Mary (the Annunciation) and Mary's ...
technique (programming an A.I. to estimate what other postulated cosmological superintelligences might want) or the Christiano utility function approach (mathematically defined human mind combined with well specified virtual environment). To choose criteria for value loading, Bostrom adopts an indirect
normativity Normative generally means relating to an evaluative standard. Normativity is the phenomenon in human societies of designating some actions or outcomes as good, desirable, or permissible, and others as bad, undesirable, or impermissible. A norm in ...
approach and considers Yudkowsky's
coherent extrapolated volition Friendly artificial intelligence (also friendly AI or FAI) refers to hypothetical artificial general intelligence (AGI) that would have a positive (benign) effect on humanity or at least align with human interests or contribute to foster the impro ...
concept, as well as moral rightness and forms of
decision theory Decision theory (or the theory of choice; not to be confused with choice theory) is a branch of applied probability theory concerned with the theory of making decisions based on assigning probabilities to various factors and assigning numerical ...
.


Open letter, 23 principles of A.I. safety

In January 2015, Bostrom joined Stephen Hawking among others in signing the
Future of Life Institute The Future of Life Institute (FLI) is a nonprofit organization that works to reduce global catastrophic and existential risks facing humanity, particularly existential risk from advanced artificial intelligence (AI). The Institute's work is mad ...
's open letter warning of the potential dangers of A.I. The signatories "...believe that research on how to make AI systems robust and beneficial is both important and timely, and that concrete research should be pursued today." Cutting-edge A.I. researcher
Demis Hassabis Demis Hassabis (born 27 July 1976) is a British artificial intelligence researcher and entrepreneur. In his early career he was a video game AI programmer and designer, and an expert player of board games. He is the chief executive officer and ...
then met with Hawking, subsequent to which he did not mention "anything inflammatory about AI", which Hassabis, took as 'a win'. Along with Google, Microsoft and various tech firms, Hassabis, Bostrom and Hawking and others subscribed to 23 principles for safe development of A.I. Hassabis suggested the main safety measure would be an agreement for whichever A.I. research team began to make strides toward an artificial general intelligence to halt their project for a complete solution to the control problem prior to proceeding. Bostrom had pointed out that even if the crucial advances require the resources of a state, such a halt by a lead project might be likely to motivate a lagging country to a catch-up crash program or even physical destruction of the project suspected of being on the verge of success.


Critical assessments

In 1863 Samuel Butler's essay "
Darwin among the Machines "Darwin among the Machines" is an article published in ''The Press'' newspaper on 13 June 1863 in Christchurch, New Zealand, which references the work of Charles Darwin in the title. Written by Samuel Butler but signed '' Cellarius'' (q.v.), the ...
" predicted the domination of humanity by intelligent machines, but Bostrom's suggestion of deliberate massacre of all humanity is the most extreme of such forecasts to date. One journalist wrote in a review that Bostrom's "nihilistic" speculations indicate he "has been reading too much of the science fiction he professes to dislike". As given in his later book, ''
From Bacteria to Bach and Back ''From Bacteria to Bach and Back: The Evolution of Minds'' is a 2017 book about the origin of human consciousness by the philosopher Daniel Dennett, in which the author makes a case for a materialist theory of mind, arguing that consciousness is ...
'', philosopher
Daniel Dennett Daniel Clement Dennett III (born March 28, 1942) is an American philosopher, writer, and cognitive scientist whose research centers on the philosophy of mind, philosophy of science, and philosophy of biology, particularly as those fields relat ...
's views remain in contradistinction to those of Bostrom. Dennett modified his views somewhat after reading '' The Master Algorithm'', and now acknowledges that it is "possible in principle" to create " strong A.I." with human-like comprehension and agency, but maintains that the difficulties of any such " strong A.I." project as predicated by Bostrom's "alarming" work would be orders of magnitude greater than those raising concerns have realized, and at least 50 years away. Dennett thinks the only relevant danger from A.I. systems is falling into anthropomorphism instead of challenging or developing human users' powers of comprehension. Since a 2014 book in which he expressed the opinion that artificial intelligence developments would never challenge humans' supremacy, environmentalist
James Lovelock James Ephraim Lovelock (26 July 1919 – 26 July 2022) was an English independent scientist, environmentalist and futurist. He is best known for proposing the Gaia hypothesis, which postulates that the Earth functions as a self-regulating sys ...
has moved far closer to Bostrom's position, and in 2018 Lovelock said that he thought the overthrow of humanity will happen within the foreseeable future.


Anthropic reasoning

Bostrom has published numerous articles on
anthropic reasoning The anthropic principle, also known as the "observation selection effect", is the hypothesis, first proposed in 1957 by Robert Dicke, that there is a restrictive lower bound on how statistically probable our observations of the universe are, bec ...
, as well as the book '' Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy''. In the book, he criticizes previous formulations of the anthropic principle, including those of
Brandon Carter Brandon Carter, (born 1942) is an Australian theoretical physicist, best known for his work on the properties of black holes and for being the first to name and employ the anthropic principle in its contemporary form. He is a researcher at th ...
, John Leslie, John Barrow, and
Frank Tipler Frank Jennings Tipler (born February 1, 1947) is an American mathematical physicist and cosmologist, holding a joint appointment in the Departments of Mathematics and Physics at Tulane University. Tipler has written books and papers on the Omeg ...
. Bostrom believes that the mishandling of indexical information is a common flaw in many areas of inquiry (including cosmology, philosophy, evolution theory, game theory, and quantum physics). He argues that an anthropic theory is needed to deal with these. He introduces the
Self-Sampling Assumption ''Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy'' (2002) is a book by philosopher Nick Bostrom. Bostrom investigates how to reason when one suspects that evidence is biased by "observation selection effects", in othe ...
(SSA) and the
Self-Indication Assumption ''Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy'' (2002) is a book by philosopher Nick Bostrom. Bostrom investigates how to reason when one suspects that evidence is biased by "observation selection effects", in othe ...
(SIA), shows how they lead to different conclusions in a number of cases, and points out that each is affected by paradoxes or counterintuitive implications in certain thought experiments. He suggests that a way forward may involve extending SSA into the Strong Self-Sampling Assumption (SSSA), which replaces "observers" in the SSA definition with "observer-moments". In later work, he has described the phenomenon of ''anthropic shadow'', an observation selection effect that prevents observers from observing certain kinds of catastrophes in their recent geological and evolutionary past. Catastrophe types that lie in the anthropic shadow are likely to be underestimated unless statistical corrections are made.


Simulation argument

Bostrom's simulation argument posits that at least one of the following statements is very likely to be true: # The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage is very close to zero; # The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running ancestor-simulations is very close to zero; # The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one.


Ethics of human enhancement

Bostrom is favorable towards "human enhancement", or "self-improvement and human perfectibility through the ethical application of science", as well as a critic of bio-conservative views. In 1998, Bostrom co-founded (with David Pearce) the World
Transhumanist Transhumanism is a philosophical and intellectual movement which advocates the enhancement of the human condition by developing and making widely available sophisticated technologies that can greatly enhance longevity and cognition. Transhuma ...
Association (which has since changed its name to
Humanity+ Humanity+ (also Humanity Plus; formerly the World Transhumanist Association) is a non-profit international educational organization that advocates the ethical use of technologies and evidence-based science to improve the human condition. This cond ...
). In 2004, he co-founded (with James Hughes) the
Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies The Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies (IEET) is a technoprogressive think tank that seeks to "promote ideas about how technological progress can increase freedom, happiness, and human flourishing in democratic societies."Joseph R. ...
, although he is no longer involved in either of these organisations. Bostrom was named in ''
Foreign Policy A State (polity), state's foreign policy or external policy (as opposed to internal or domestic policy) is its objectives and activities in relation to its interactions with other states, unions, and other political entities, whether bilaterall ...
''s 2009 list of top global thinkers "for accepting no limits on human potential." In 2005 Bostrom published the short story "
The Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant "The Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant" is a 2005 short story about ageing and death by the Swedish philosopher Nick Bostrom. It relates the misery inflicted by a dragon-tyrant (a personification of the ageing process and death), who demands a tribute ...
" in the ''
Journal of Medical Ethics The ''Journal of Medical Ethics'' is a monthly peer-reviewed academic journal covering the field of bioethics that was established in 1975. According to the ''Journal Citation Reports'', the journal has a 2019 impact factor of 2.021, ranking it fou ...
''. A shorter version was published in 2012 in ''
Philosophy Now ''Philosophy Now'' is a bimonthly philosophy magazine sold from news-stands and book stores in the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada; it is also available on digital devices, and online. It aims to appeal to the wider public, ...
''. The fable personifies death as a dragon that demands a tribute of thousands of people every day. The story explores how status quo bias and learned helplessness can prevent people from taking action to defeat aging even when the means to do so are at their disposal. YouTuber
CGP Grey CGP Grey is an American-Irish educational YouTuber, podcaster, and live streamer who creates short explanatory videos on subjects including politics, geography, economics, sociology, history, and culture. In addition to video production, Gre ...
created an animated version of the story which has garnered over eight million views as of 2020. With philosopher
Toby Ord Toby David Godfrey Ord (born July 1979) is an Australian philosopher. He founded Giving What We Can in 2009, an international society whose members pledge to donate at least 10% of their income to effective charities, and is a key figure in the ...
, he proposed the
reversal test The reversal test is a heuristic designed to spot and eliminate status quo bias, an emotional bias irrationally favouring the current state of affairs. The test is applicable to the evaluation of any decision involving a potential deviation from th ...
in 2006. Given humans' irrational status quo bias, how can one distinguish between valid criticisms of proposed changes in a human trait and criticisms merely motivated by resistance to change? The reversal test attempts to do this by asking whether it would be a good thing if the trait was altered in the opposite direction.


Technology strategy

He has suggested that technology policy aimed at reducing existential risk should seek to influence the order in which various technological capabilities are attained, proposing the principle of
differential technological development Differential technological development is a strategy of technology governance aiming to decrease risks from emerging technologies by influencing the sequence in which they are developed. On this strategy, societies would strive to delay the devel ...
. This principle states that we ought to retard the development of dangerous technologies, particularly ones that raise the level of existential risk, and accelerate the development of beneficial technologies, particularly those that protect against the existential risks posed by nature or by other technologies. 9 Journal of Evolution and Technolog
JetpressOxford Research Archive
/ref> Bostrom's theory of the Unilateralist's Curse has been cited as a reason for the scientific community to avoid controversial dangerous research such as reanimating pathogens.


Policy and consultations

Bostrom has provided policy advice and consulted for an extensive range of governments and organizations. He gave evidence to the
House of Lords The House of Lords, also known as the House of Peers, is the Bicameralism, upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. Membership is by Life peer, appointment, Hereditary peer, heredity or Lords Spiritual, official function. Like the ...
, Select Committee on Digital Skills. He is an advisory board member for the
Machine Intelligence Research Institute The Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI), formerly the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence (SIAI), is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artifi ...
,
Future of Life Institute The Future of Life Institute (FLI) is a nonprofit organization that works to reduce global catastrophic and existential risks facing humanity, particularly existential risk from advanced artificial intelligence (AI). The Institute's work is mad ...
,
Foundational Questions Institute The Foundational Questions Institute, styled FQXi, is an organization that provides grants to "catalyze, support, and disseminate research on questions at the foundations of physics and cosmology." It was founded in 2005 by cosmologists Max Tegmark ...
and an external advisor for the Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk.


Critical reception

In response to Bostrom's writing on artificial intelligence,
Oren Etzioni Oren Etzioni (born 1964) is an American entrepreneur, Professor Emeritus of computer science, and founding CEO of the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2). On June 15, 2022, he announced that he will step down as CEO of AI2 effective ...
wrote in an MIT Review article, "predictions that superintelligence is on the foreseeable horizon are not supported by the available data." Professors Allan Dafoe and Stuart Russell wrote a response contesting both Etzioni's survey methodology and Etzioni's conclusions.
Prospect Magazine ''Prospect'' is a monthly British general-interest magazine, specialising in politics, economics and current affairs. Topics covered include British and other European, and US politics, social issues, art, literature, cinema, science, the medi ...
listed Bostrom in their 2014 list of the ''World's Top Thinkers''.


Bibliography


Books

* 2002 – '' Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy'', * 2008 – ''
Global Catastrophic Risks A global catastrophic risk or a doomsday scenario is a hypothetical future event that could damage human well-being on a global scale, even endangering or destroying modern civilization. An event that could cause human extinction or permanen ...
'', edited by Bostrom and Milan M. Ćirković, * 2009 – ''
Human Enhancement Human enhancement (HE) can be described as the natural, artificial, or technological alteration of the human body in order to enhance physical or mental capabilities. Technologies Existing technologies Three forms of human enhancement curre ...
'', edited by Bostrom and
Julian Savulescu Julian Savulescu (born 22 December 1963) is an Australian philosopher and bioethicist of Romanian origins. He is Uehiro Chair in Practical Ethics at the University of Oxford, Fellow of St Cross College, Oxford, director of the Oxford Uehiro Cent ...
, * 2014 – '' Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies'',


Journal articles (selected)

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


See also

*
Doomsday argument The Doomsday Argument (DA), or Carter catastrophe, is a probabilistic argument that claims to predict the future population of the human species, based on an estimation of the number of humans born to date. The Doomsday argument was originally ...
*
Dream argument The dream argument is the postulation that the act of dreaming provides preliminary evidence that the senses we trust to distinguish reality from illusion should not be fully trusted, and therefore, any state that is dependent on our senses should ...
* Effective altruism *
Global catastrophic risk A global catastrophic risk or a doomsday scenario is a hypothetical future event that could damage human well-being on a global scale, even endangering or destroying modern civilization. An event that could cause human extinction or permanen ...
* Pascal's mugging * Simulation hypothesis * Simulated reality *
The Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant "The Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant" is a 2005 short story about ageing and death by the Swedish philosopher Nick Bostrom. It relates the misery inflicted by a dragon-tyrant (a personification of the ageing process and death), who demands a tribute ...


References


External links

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Radio Bostrom
Audio narrations of Bostrom's academic papers.
Anthropic Principle
Bostrom's website about the
anthropic principle The anthropic principle, also known as the "observation selection effect", is the hypothesis, first proposed in 1957 by Robert Dicke, that there is a restrictive lower bound on how statistically probable our observations of the universe are, beca ...
and the
Doomsday argument The Doomsday Argument (DA), or Carter catastrophe, is a probabilistic argument that claims to predict the future population of the human species, based on an estimation of the number of humans born to date. The Doomsday argument was originally ...
.
Simulation Argument
Bostrom's website about the simulation argument.
Existential Risk
Bostrom's website about
existential risk A global catastrophic risk or a doomsday scenario is a hypothetical future event that could damage human well-being on a global scale, even endangering or destroying modern civilization. An event that could cause human extinction or permanen ...
. * * * {{DEFAULTSORT:Bostrom, Nick 1973 births Living people 21st-century British philosophers 21st-century Swedish philosophers Alumni of King's College London Alumni of the London School of Economics Bayesian statisticians Consequentialists Cryonicists Epistemologists Fellows of St Cross College, Oxford Futurologists People from Helsingborg Philosophers of technology Swedish computer scientists Swedish ethicists Artificial intelligence ethicists Swedish expatriates in the United Kingdom Swedish philosophers Swedish roboticists Swedish transhumanists University of Gothenburg alumni